Can DuPont shares return after a 13% drop in 10 days?

The share price of DuPont de Nemours Inc.
DD
has seen a 9% drop over the last five trading days, while it has fallen 13% over the last ten trading days and we believe the stock is likely to return from its current level in the short term. The decrease can largely be attributed to the income statement at higher levels after the company published its 4th quarter results. Note that the DD share rose approx. 50% from levels below $ 60 in mid-August 2020 to above $ 85 in mid-January 2021 before falling to $ 73 at present. The overperformance can be attributed to M&A arbitrage related to the IFF agreement. IFF recently completed the previously announced merger of IFF and DuPont’s Nutrition & Biosciences business in a Reverse Morris Trust transaction. Last month, some of the brokerage firm downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Hold” after a strong rally. That said, the stock has now corrected 15% from recent highs and its 4th quarter earnings of $ 0.95 per share. Stocks were better than the $ 0.89 consensus estimates. Not only did the company beat in the 4th quarter, DuPont’s guidance for 2021 was also above the consensus estimates.

The 9% drop for DD shares is compared to the 1% gain seen in the broader S&P 500 index. Now after the recent fall, we believe the DD stock is ready to win in the short term given its positive guidance. In fact, we believe there is a 74% chance of a rise in the DD stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the last few years. See our analysis at DuPont Stock Chances of Increase for more details. Are you curious about the possibility of rising over the next quarter? Check it out DD Stock AI Dashboard: Chances of Rise and Fall for a series of scenarios on how DD stocks could move.

Five days: DD -8.7% versus S & P500 1.2%; Underperforming market

(3% probability event)

  • DuPont warehouse fell 8.7% over a five-day trading period ending 2/11/2021, compared to a wider market (S & P500) increase of 1.2%
  • A change of -8.7% or more over five trading days is a 3% probability event that has occurred 41 times out of 1256 in the last five years

Ten days: DD -13% against S & P500 3.5%; Underperforming market

(3% probability event)

  • DuPont warehouse fell 13% over the last ten trading days (2 weeks) compared to a wider market (S & P500) increase of 3.5%
  • A change of -13% or more over 10 trading days is a 3% probability event that has occurred 43 times out of 1240 in the last five years

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